As of right now the US has 770,564 confirmed cases with 41,114 deaths due to the coronavirus, according to Google.com. We know this is a dangerous time and caution needs to be adhered to with every step we take outside our home. The good news is that we are likely at the peak in most states and will see a decline until the second wave. This second wave is inevitable though, businesses will have to open up at some point in 2020 and we will then see an uptick in cases and thereafter deaths. How we go about this is the big question.
Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) United States. Week ending 2/29/2020 to 4/11/2020
The data above is taken from February 29th and ending April 11th. The week preceding April 11th was where most estimators predicted we would see the most deaths, this is why you see the total deaths number at 13,130. Unfortunately this is the most accurate data we can get at this time.
An interesting trend I see is that according to this data the coronavirus is not lethal to young people. Only 16 deaths are attributed to persons below the age of 24.
|Age Group||COVID-19 Deaths||Deaths from all Causes|
|Under 1 year||0||3,084|
So we can say by looking at the data above that the virus does not affect young people the same as it affects the elderly population. I still believe we do not know enough about COVID-19 but this is what we do know at this point:
- It is easily spread
- Lethal to the older population
Knowing this should allow for more leniency to the younger population, with exclusion of people with preexisting conditions, to get out and stimulate the economy. The common phrase “could kill anybody” that is being used widely now, while still true, is not 100% accurate. If you are a healthy person, below the age of 25, and you do not come in contact with the elderly population you should be allowed to conduct many day to day tasks without restriction. I know many people of this age do come in contact with older generations so it is not a perfect scenario but most likely this younger group will be needed in the coming months to stimulate the economy.
A study came out of the Netherlands recently about how many people in that country had the COVID-19 antibodies. The study on blood donors showed 3% of the entire country had antibodies, which means at some point they had the virus. Actively in the Netherlands there are 28,000 cases with 3,000 deaths. Contrast those two numbers and moving forward with someone with the virus could look very grim. But if we contrast it with the 3% number, that means close to 500,000 people have already had the virus and survived. That puts the case fatality rate at close to 0.6% which is much lower than earlier estimates from the WHO and US modeling experts which pegged the virus to have a case fatality rate of around 3%.
For policy makers this is going to be an extremely hard task but in the coming months we will need to at least partially open back up some businesses. “The fallout is going to last for years because people’s lives are being destroyed” in the words of Dr. Phil: